Offending electoral support

Shift of electoral support - the flow of votes between parties participating in political rivalry. It is tested in a period separating two consecutive elections or in the long term. Its size is commonly regarded as a indicator of stabilization or political destabilization.

It is influenced by such factors as: transformation of the electoral system transformations of the party system eg:

There are three levels of electoral shift:

1. Net offset

Calculate the profit and loss of each lot. The size of the transfer of votes that has taken place between the parties.

The flow rate index was proposed by Danish political scientist M. Pedersen. It is calculated by comparing the results of two consecutive elections. Only the absolute value of the difference in results reached by the individual groups is included here. The value of the transfer is the sum of the profits received by the parties who have improved their electoral result, to which the percentage of votes received by the non-participating parties has been added. Therefore, no party is considered, which results in a deterioration.

2. Interstitial offset

The shift of electoral support between the different political blocks.

S. Bartolini and P. Mair note that while voters are inclined to turn away from specific parties that have failed them, it is far less likely that the left will support the right and vice versa.

3. Gross offset

The overall, real transfer of votes. This is a very difficult to calculate index, but it gives the most reliable results as the net transfer index does not equate to the actual size of the transfer of votes between the parties. This is due to the fact that a group of voters, changing their p and casting votes for other groups, may be much more numerous than this, as a result of a comparison of the balance of gains and losses. The fact that a party has maintained or slightly changed its support does not mean that it has won the support of the same electorate. Bibliography

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